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☆ Op-ed: There's a potential tax increase coming. Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Ivory Johnson | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Eva-katalin | E+ | Getty ImagesIt is common folklore, a fairy tale of sorts, that middle-class Americans received perpetual relief in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. First, property taxes generate 32% of state and local income, and U.S. median single-family home property taxes have risen by more than 25% since 2019. Congress will be motivated to etch all the tax cuts in stone, but it would only add fuel to the debt bonfire. watch nowThere is also the qualified business income deduction that offers a 20% tax break for small businesses provided they are below certain income thresholds. All of this is in addition to crippling cost-of-living challenges from excessive government spending, the well our Treasury would have to revisit to make these tax cuts permanent.

Persons: Eva, katalin, he's, Peter G, Uncle Sam, Roth, depreciate — Organizations: Taxation, Economic, Peterson Foundation, Chamber, Commerce, Treasury, Hope Congress, Real, IRS Locations: U.S, United States

☆ Federal budget deficit expected to soar to $2.6 trillion in 2034, CBO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Tami Luhby | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —The federal budget deficit will balloon from $1.6 trillion this fiscal year to $2.6 trillion in fiscal year 2034, according to the latest Congressional Budget Office outlook released Wednesday. A major reason for the widening gap between revenue and spending: a spike in net interest payments on the federal debt due to higher interest rates. The nation’s debt held by the public is expected to rise to a record 116% of the economy by 2034. CBO’s deficit projection will likely add pressure to congressional lawmakers who have yet to agree on funding for federal agencies for fiscal year 2024. Budget experts called on Congress to take action to address the nation’s worsening fiscal situation.

Persons: MacGuineas, they’ve, Mike Johnson, ” Michael Peterson, Peter G Organizations: CNN, Congressional, Social Security, Medicare, CBO, GOP, Capitol, Federal, House Republicans, Peterson Foundation

"A fiscal commission is direly needed," Republican Senator Mike Braun, a Budget Committee member, said in an interview. It circulated ideas from a dozen experts on how a commission could offer up solutions for taming deficits and debt. Other recommendations included subjecting high-income earners to more Social Security taxes and gradually raising the age for full retirement benefits to 69 from the current 67. A commission, said independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who caucuses with Democrats, would simply be "a backdoor way to get into cutting Social Security." Sanders embraced lifting the cap on taxable income to extend the life of the Social Security trust fund.

Persons: Kevin Wurm, Mike Braun, Braun, Moody's, Fitch, Michael Peterson, Peter G, Mark Zandi, Dana Peterson, Lori Esposito Murray, Joe Manchin, Mitt Romney, Bernie Sanders, Sanders, Richard Cowan, Moira Warburton, Grant McCool Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Rights, Congress, Treasury Department, Republican, AAA, Peterson Foundation, Conference Board, Democratic, Representatives, Social Security, Social, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Opinion | America Needs a Serious Talk About How to Shrink Its Deficits
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

You need to put politics aside to shrink government budget deficits — or that’s the conventional wisdom, anyway. I was given an early look last week at a new collection that includes her essay and eight others commissioned by the foundation. Heitkamp told me last week that by politics, she doesn’t mean the kind of skirmishing for electoral advantage that Washington is famous for. Her essay quotes President Abraham Lincoln, who said: “Public sentiment is everything. With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it nothing can succeed.”“When you’re faced with tough choices, as certainly Lincoln was, you can’t expect people to follow you,” Heitkamp told me.

Persons: Heidi Heitkamp, Heitkamp, Peter G, Abraham Lincoln, ”, you’re, Lincoln, ” Heitkamp, they’re Organizations: U.S . Senate, Peterson Foundation, Washington Locations: U.S, Dakota

☆ With Social Security trust funds 'rapidly heading to zero,' some ask whether the money should be invested in equities
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The trust funds that Social Security relies on to pay benefits are "rapidly heading to zero," according to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. Those funds, which are typically invested in Treasury securities, are projected to run out in 2034, at which point just 80% of benefits may be payable. As that date draws closer, that has prompted more discussion as to whether that money should also be invested in stocks. "Theoretically, yes," said Anqi Chen, senior research economist and assistant director of savings research at the Center for Retirement Research, which recently published research addressing the question. More from Personal Finance:Here's what happens to Social Security benefits after you dieAs student loan bills resume, how economy may be shakenHow Congress may fix looming Social Security benefit shortfallBut the real-world answer is not necessarily clear-cut, Chen and other experts say.

Persons: Anqi Chen, Chen, Peter G Organizations: Social, Center for Retirement Research, Boston College, Finance, Social Security, Security, Peterson Foundation Locations: New York

☆ Rising interest rates means the cost of US debt will hit a new peak by 2025, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The cost of servicing the US's pile of debt is on track to hit a new record in 2025, Goldman Sachs said. Total interest payments on the US debt could amount to $10.6 trillion over the next decade, per one analysis. In 2022, it cost the government $476 billion, or around 2% of national GDP to pay the interest on its debt. Interest payments are set to rise to 3% of GDP in 2024, and 4% of GDP by 2030, strategists estimated. The federal debt could make up 181% of GDP by 2053, according to one projection from the Congressional Budget Office.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, That's, Peter G, Goldman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Peterson Foundation, Congressional, Office

☆ Opinion | The Hope at the Bottom of the ‘Child Care Cliff’
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Jessica Grose | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

So I called Kathryn Anne Edwards, an economist and economic policy consultant, to see if there’s an argument that might change people’s minds about the utter necessity of more robust government child care funding — or if I should lose all hope in the possibility of a shift in the way that child care is thought about, discussed and sustained in the United States. labor force participation is midway through a historic decline. In Edwards’s phrasing, it “has been frozen in time for 25 years.” When you see headlines about how we’re at all-time highs for women’s labor force participation, Edwards suggests, that’s misleading. When you look at the actual level of increase since the 1990s, labor force participation among women has barely budged, and without a policy shift, we shouldn’t expect it to go up much in the coming years. The second thing that could force Congress to act on child care is that the birthrate is on the decline in the United States, Edwards said.

Persons: Kathryn Anne Edwards, Edwards, ”, ” Edwards, “, Peter G Organizations: Social, Peterson Foundation, Social Security Locations: United States

☆ US debt rises to $33 trillion as government shutdown looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —As the US national debt passes $33 trillion and a government shutdown looms, Wall Street feels defensive. What’s happening: The gross national debt has grown at an alarming pace since then — by $1 trillion in the last three months alone. Political finger pointing around what caused the accelerated debt accrual, meanwhile, has left the government at an impasse around the budget. The recent increase in interest rates has already made it much more expensive for the government to pay back what it owes. That would leave the door open for another rate increase, which could come when the following meeting concludes, on November 1.

Persons: Fitch, ”, Michael Peterson, Peter G, Peterson, Biden, Gary Schlossberg, Jennifer Timmerman, Gregory Daco, Bryan Mena, Jerome Powell, Instacart, Jordan Valinsky Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, AAA, AA, GOP, UAW, Wells, Investment Institute, Fed, Federal, Financial, Walmart Locations: New York, —, Amazon

☆ U.S. debt is nearly $33 trillion. But some economists say not all debt is bad.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-10 | by ( Charlotte Morabito | In Charlottemorabito | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. national debt is sitting at nearly $33 trillion dollars. "The public debt has always been used for emergencies. The national debt increased by more than 89% since the beginning of the pandemic, with many top economists in agreement that 2020 was not the time to worry about the debt. Servicing the debt can become difficult when interest rates are higher. The Federal Reserve has been increasing interest rates since March 2022 with the goal of slowing down economic activity.

Persons: Kris Mitchener, William Gale, Michael Peterson, Peter G, Lori Esposito, Murray, Stephanie Kelton Organizations: U.S, Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University, Brookings Institution, Peterson Foundation, Economic Develop, Conference Board, Economic Development, The Conference Board, Federal Reserve, Stony Brook University Locations: U.S

A holiday-shortened week often provides markets and economists a moment to reflect. That’s especially the case after Labor Day, a date that signifies the end of the summer. Data last week reinforced the narrative of a slowing labor market and inflation that has cooled off but not quite as much as the Federal Reserve would like. A handful of Fed governors will speak this week ahead of the central bank’s next meeting in two weeks. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs on Tuesday lowered the odds of a recession within the next 12 months to 15% from 20% previously, citing the favorable inflation data, the softening labor market and continued growth in incomes.

Persons: “, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Peter G, Peterson Organizations: Labor, Federal, BCA Research, White

US debt held by the public will climb to a record high of 107% of the gross domestic product in 2029, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projected on Wednesday. The projection comes despite the bipartisan debt ceiling deal hailed by its backers as a major deficit reducer. In 2029, debt held by the public will total about $36 trillion, or $104,300 per person, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a non-profit public policy organization. Debt held by the public is expected to hit 181% of GDP in 2053, far exceeding any previous record. To put it another way: US debt in 2053 could equal about $384,700 per person, compared to $75,700 today, according to Towner.

Persons: That’s, Chris Towner, Towner, ”, Michael Peterson, Peter G Organizations: New, New York CNN, Republicans, Democrats, CBO, Federal, Budget, Social Security, Peterson Foundation Locations: New York, United, Towner

☆ Premarket stocks: SpinCos are the new SPACs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The parent company may distribute the new company’s stock to its shareholders, allowing them to own shares in both. These smaller, newly formed companies are still in the process of establishing themselves in the market and often have lower profit margins than their parent company. It costs a lot to borrow these days and investors are looking for high profits and value stocks, writes Goldman. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have added significantly to the cost of government debt. “As we add trillion after trillion to our debt, the problem only gets worse and compounds.

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